Reframing Just Green Transitions through Energy Geopolitics: Actors, Inequalities, and Territorial Vulnerabilities

This paper addresses the Just Green Transitions (JGTs) as a wicked, multiscalar problem at the intersection of energy geopolitics, territorial justice, and anticipatory governance. The analysis adopts an integrated foresight methodology combining cross-impact analysis, horizon scanning, and scenario planning to explore the geopolitical complexity of the JGTs. Drawing on a meta-geopolitical framework, the study examines the interplay between critical raw material dependencies, spatial inequalities, and global power shifts. Foresight tools are applied to construct alternative transition trajectories, namely competitive and co-operative pathways, and to assess the strategic role of territorial resilience and anticipatory governance mechanisms in managing uncertainty and fostering equitable policy innovation across scales. Through comparative case studies of the European Green Deal (EGD) and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the paper highlights paradoxes in just transition strategies in which efforts to decarbonise risk deepening inequalities and fuelling forms of energy neocolonialism, particularly across North–South divides. By repositioning territorial resilience not merely as a technical goal but as a normative foundation for equitable transitions, this contribution advances a critical lens on the governance of sustainability transformations.