La povertà in Italia tra ciclo economico e fratture territoriali: nuove prospettive di misurazione

This article critically examines the evolution of absolute poverty in Italy over the last two decades, with a particular focus on its territorial and cyclical dimensions. While absolute poverty is a central indicator in public debate and a benchmark for national social policies, its current measurement – based on household consumption – presents critical shortcomings in capturing both economic cycles and spatial disparities. The article compares the official ISTAT measure with a new set of indicators based on income deprivation, aiming to highlight both divergences and points of convergence across methods. The comparative analysis shows that the Istat indicator is largely insensitive to business cycle phases and fails to capture the heterogeneity in economic deprivation across municipalities of different sizes. In contrast, the proposed income-based indicators reveal more dynamic patterns over time and across places. They also provide new insights into the distribution of child poverty, which differ significantly from ISTAT results. These findings call for a reconsideration of the methodological and normative premises behind official poverty statistics and suggest the need for more context-sensitive tools, capable of reflecting the evolving economic and territorial structure of Italian society.