Sprawl or Segregation? Local Fertility as a Proxy of Socio-spatial Disparities Under Sequential Economic Downturns

Although long-term demographic trends have been extensively analyzed in advanced economies, impact of economic downturns on local fertility has been poorly investigated in low fertility contexts. Earlier studies have documented suburban fertility as signifcantly higher than urban and rural fertility, thanks to a mix of macro (contextual) and micro (behavioral) factors shaping birth rates. In light of the ‘suburban fertility hypothesis’, the present study provides a refned analysis of local fertility rates between 1999 and 2019 at urban,suburban, and rural locations in Athens (Greece), a metropolitan region experiencing sequential expansion and stagnation waves. A superior fertility at suburban locations has been observed during the 2000s and the 2010s, with crude birth rates increasing in socially dynamic and wealthier neighborhoods. With economic expansion, these contexts corresponded with (rapidly growing) industrial districts West of Athens. With recession, these contexts were mostly associated with residential (and service-specialized) neighborhoods East of Athens, with local communities displaying a more efective response to crisis.