Agent-Based Models as Credible Counterfactuals for Economic History

This paper advocates the introduction of Agent-Based Models (ABMs) in Economic History, as they could provide the means to create Credible Counterfactuals for its theories. To do so, it first presents a brief history of the discipline and its methodologies, highlighting its dual nature. This is followed by an introduction to ABMs and how these models can represent and create knowledge. The paper then provides an excursion into the use of ABMs by other historical disciplines and, in particular, Archaeology and Business History with History-Friendly Models. This is followed by an exploration of Counterfactuals and their use in History. The last section builds on this to argue that ABMs can function as Credible Counterfactuals for Economic History.