Demographic and Workforce Projections in Italy and Sweden: Social Security Challenges and Prospects

This paper examines the challenges facing European social security systems, focusing on Italy and Sweden’s differing approaches to pension reform amid ageing populations. It analyses how demographic shifts—such as declining fertility and increased longevity—are impacting the balance between contributors and beneficiaries in pay-as-you-go (PAYG) schemes. The study contrasts Sweden’s rapid, intergenerationally fair transition from non-financial defined benefit (NDB) to non-financial defined contribution (NDC) pensions with Italy’s slower, rights-based approach. It also discusses key design features for NDC sustainability, the role of solidarity, and the shifting relationship between public and private actors in welfare provision.