Probabilities to adopt feed in tariff conditioned to economic transition: A scenario analysis

In this paper we analyze the factors behind the adoption of Feed-in Tariff and we estimate the probabilities that countries not yet adopted the FiT will propose it under different scenario hypotheses. We estimate a panel probit model to a set of 43 countries using annual data covering the period 1980-2008. We employ the binary time series of adoption of the Feed-in-Tariff as outcome variable and control for a set of economics, environmental and generation factors. Results demonstrate that adoption of FiT depends by various factors. Furthermore, we highlights that one of the main factors is the economic growth. The frequency with which the developed countries adopt the FiT is significantly higher than in developing countries and the probability to adopt FiT increases as income grows up.