Demographic Dynamics, Urban Cycles and Economic Downturns. A Long-term Investigation of a Metropolitan Region in Europe, 1956–2016

Economic downturns have influenced population dynamics, fuelling social inequalities and income divides across countries and regions. At the same time, urban cycles affected demographic patterns and processes at the very local scale. However, the synergic contribution of urban cycles and economic downturns to population dynamics was less investigated in advanced economies. The present study proposes a spatially explicit analysis of birth, marriage and death rates during a complete urban cycle (1956–2016) with sequential economic expansions and recessions in a European metropolitan region (Athens, Greece). With compact urbanization (late 1950s–late 1970s), fertility was higher in central districts; the reverse pattern was observed during suburbanization (early 1980s–early 2000s). Marriage and death rates, respectively, decreased and increased in a spatially heterogeneous fashion under economic expansions and recessions. Spatial dependency of demographic indicators decreased over time, evidencing more heterogeneous trends during suburbanization. Less clustered population dynamics and a reduced importance of spatial effects were observed in the most recent years coinciding with re-urbanization and economic recession. Results of a canonical correlation analysis demonstrate the importance of local contexts in demographic processes, indicating that urban–rural polarizations have progressively shifted toward more latent spatial trends, e.g. consolidating the divide in wealthier and disadvantaged districts. These findings suggest that population dynamics in Athens were influenced by multiple socioeconomic forces interacting at different geographical scales and reflecting a complex economic-urban cycle. Our study contributes to the debate over present and future development of European cities and justifies the use of a diachronic analysis of demographic dynamics in metropolitan systems.