Sustainable land-use, wildfires, and evolving local contexts in a Mediterranean Country, 2000-2015

Socioeconomic conditions and land management choices combine to affect changes in long-term wildfire regimes in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Identification of specific drivers and dynamics at the local level is needed to inform land resource planning and to enhance wildfire management efficiency. Therefore, investigating feedback relationships between wildfire and socioeconomic conditions at local and regional scales can reveal consistency in spatial and temporal patterns influencing wildfire frequency, intensity, and severity. This study assessed long-term wildfire characteristics in Greece-one of the most fire-prone countries in Europe-over two consecutive time periods characterized by economic expansion (2000-2007) and recession (2008- 2015). An integrated, multivariate statistical approach was implemented to assess the latent relationship between socioeconomic forces and localized wildfire regime indicators. Changes in the number of fires at the wildland-urban interface and duration of wildfires were consistent with expectations. Observed changes in the size of fires showed mixed results. Empirical findings of this study indicate analysis of wildfire regimes that takes into account both the socioeconomic and environmental factors in the overall territorial context of Mediterranean-type ecosystems, at both regional and local scale, may prove informative for the design of wildfire prevention measures in Greece.