The background context matters. Local-scale socioeconomic conditions and the spatial distribution of wildfires in Italy

Wildfires, a key socio-environmental challenge in Mediterranean regions, are influenced by anthropogenic factors shaping land-use and socioeconomic spatial structures. By assuming that the dominant socioeconomic structure of local districts exerts a variable impact on wildfire spatial regimes, the present study investigates 174 indicators on a municipal scale in Italy, identifying a multidimensional relationship between wildfire characteristics and socioeconomic contexts. An exploratory statistical approach was adopted to identify linear and non-linear relationships among variables assessing socioeconomic contexts and wildfire patterns. Empirical results demonstrate that characteristic wildfire attributes (frequency, intensity and severity) are systematically higher in socioeconomic contexts characterized by rural poverty, unemployment and deregulated urban expansion, especially in southern Italy. A higher fire frequency was typically observed in (i) peri-urban districts with a dynamic socio-demographic profile and (ii) in rural districts with intensive cropping systems. Joint information on socioeconomic structure/dynamics and environmental change, is crucial for a better understanding of local-scale spatial patterns of wildfires in the Mediterranean region. Integrated socio-environmental information provides a better understanding of the local communities' role in the management of wildfire-prone land, contributing to implement more effective strategies aimed at minimizing wildfire impact on land resources.