Urban dispersion and economic crisis. Empirical evidence from a Mediterranean region

Economic expansions and recessions have had a relevant influence on urbanization patterns, altering building cycles and depressing local housing markets. In regions with declining employment and wealth, the 2007 economic crisis has resulted in urban containment and inherent transformations in metropolitan structures and socioeconomic functions. This study aims at verifying whether urban growth spatial direction and intensity have changed during the 2007 economic crisis in Athens, the capital of Greece, based on a diachronic analysis (1990–2016) of indicators assessing population dynamics, building characteristics and land-use change. Urban growth rate in the study area was the highest over a period of economic expansion spanning from 1990 to 2006, decreasing largely in the subsequent decade, characterized by economic recession. Conversely, dispersed development as a proportion of total urban growth was the lowest during economic expansion, rising after 2007. With economic expansion, discontinuous urban growth concentrated in peri-urban districts. During recession, the same districts experienced a trend towards settlement re-densification, with new sprawled settlements expanding in marginal areas. Taken together, the empirical results of this study suggest that economic recession has promoted a moderate change in spatial direction and intensity of Athens’ expansion, with distinct patterns of urban densification and dispersion depending on the specific local context. Our findings bring insights on the debate over post-crisis development of Mediterranean cities, suggesting that–without policy interventions–dispersed settlements will remain the dominant urbanization pattern in heterogeneous and fragmented metropolitan regions.