Energy Efficiency and Household Energy Poverty: The Impact of Rebound Effects in Italy

Post-pandemic energy price volatility has intensified affordability challenges, prompting Italian policymakers to implement initiatives like Superbonus 110\% and to extend the existing Ecobonus to promote residential energy efficiency (EE). However, the effectiveness of these interventions in reducing energy poverty (EP) remains unclear, particularly when considering behavioral rebound effects (RE) that may offset expected benefits. The relationship is empirically examined between energy efficiency improvements and energy poverty reduction using micro-level data from the 2023 ISTAT Household Budget Survey. Methodologically, it employs a two-stage procedure combining a stochastic energy demand frontier model with a probabilistic approach to quantify household-level energy efficiency and direct rebound effects. Results reveal that while energy efficiency improvements significantly reduce energy expenditures and EP risk, these benefits are substantially eroded by behavioral rebound effects, especially among households with initially low efficiency levels. Findings provide crucial insights for designing more effective energy efficiency policies to combat energy poverty in economically stratified contexts.