The aging population and the relationships between demographic and economic dynamics. Case study: Poland

The problems related to the change in the age structure of the population and the demographic depression, are one of the main challenges of the twenty-first century. Changes in structure of the population depend on the evolution of the birth rate, fertility and mortality. The aging of the population in recent decades, however, is mainly due to the decline in births and to the emigration. The implications related to the increase in the elderly population, are not only economic, but also social, political, cultural and psychological, affecting on the rate of population turnover and the index of dependency. The interrelationships between demographic and economic variables are one of the most fruitful and suggestive issue of new geography of the population that is not no longer understood only as a study of population dynamics and of the effects on the composition of the population, but also as analysis of the consequences on the socio-economic aspects of the trend of demographic indicators and vice versa, and on the change of the demographic trends in correlation with the economic performance. Regarding the aging population, it is essential to identify the tools and the actions needed to manage the effects of this phenomenon in the social, economic and financial structure of the State. The changing age structure and social relations, speeded by globalization and supranational integration, determine, therefore, strong shock to the principles of the welfare state, which needs a renewal in relation to changing conditions. Poland is aging very rapidly. In 1950, the median age was 25.8 and half of the Polish population was younger, half older. Today it is 38 and it will be 51 in 2050. As the population is aging, it has also started to decline: from 38.6 million in 1995, to 38.3 million in 2014, to an expected 32 million in 2050. The 2014th was the third year in a row in which the population decreased after the growth recorded in the previous years (2008-2011). By 2035, therefore, Poland could have 2.5 million fewer inhabitants and an average age much higher. The process of aging of the population will have undoubtedly far-reaching consequences for the labor market. At the same time, non-working-age population will increase. This is a considerable increase of the demographic burden. This prospect threatens the economic stability and the country's role in Europe. After analysing the demographic dynamics and their impact on economic growth, the aim of this paper is to explore how Poland can sustain its strong economic performance under these demographic conditions and what it will take to mitigate the impact of medium-term demographic trends on Poland’s economy.